Data show majority of Trump’s 2020 support came from women and people of color

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Newly released data show that the majority of former President Donald Trump’s supporters in the 2020 election were women and people of color.

The share of Trump voters who were women or people of color in last year’s election was 57.2%, up from 54.8% in 2016, according to newly released data from Catalist. The former president also increased his support among all racial demographics in 2020, with the exception of white men, making a 7-point gain among nonwhite women, a 4-point gain with nonwhite men, a 1-point gain with white women, and a 1-point loss among white men.

The data also showed that Trump enjoyed a large increase in support among Latino voters, though Democrats still captured a majority of the group.

“Along with massive increases in turnout, Latino vote share as a whole swung towards Trump by 8 points in two-way vote share compared to 2016, though Biden-Harris still enjoyed solid majority (61%) support among this group,” Catalist wrote in its analysis of the data. “Some of the shift from 2016 appears to be a result of changing voting preferences among people who voted in both elections, and some may come from new voters who were more evenly split in their vote choice than previous Latino voters. This question presents particularly challenging data analysis problems, which we discuss more in a dedicated section below.”

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Black voter support also saw a substantial increase in last year’s election, with the group swinging 3 points toward Trump compared to 2016.

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Catalist also noted that, like 2016, 2020’s results “defied” pollsters and delivered surprisingly close results.

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“The 2020 election was incredibly challenging and full of surprise,” the analysis stated. “For the second presidential election in a row, voters defied the public polls, delivering a clear victory for Democrats, but one that was closer than many analysts expected and at a time when the two major political parties are divided on the nature and value of democracy itself.”

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